Israel’s Political Stability at Risk as Haredi Parties Threaten Coalition Collapse Over Military Draft Exemption
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is on the brink of collapse, triggered by a deepening rift with his ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) coalition partners over military conscription laws. The issue centers on the exemption of ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from compulsory military service, a practice that has been a point of contention for years. Recently, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the exemption is unconstitutional, sparking an urgent need for new legislation. The ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, have threatened to leave Netanyahu’s fragile coalition if their military service exemption is not secured through law. This ongoing crisis is putting immense pressure on Netanyahu’s ability to maintain his slim parliamentary majority, with the potential for early elections looming.
Haredi Parties Demand Exemption or Coalition Breakdown
The core of the current political crisis revolves around a Supreme Court ruling that challenges the legitimacy of the long-standing exemption for ultra-Orthodox students. For decades, students at Haredi yeshivas (religious schools) have been exempt from military service, a policy originally meant for a small minority but now affecting a significant portion of Israel’s population, which has grown to more than 13%. With the court’s recent decision, the Israeli government is now under pressure to pass a new law to either amend or eliminate the exemption, an issue that has divided Netanyahu’s coalition.
Prime Minister Netanyahu vs the State of Israel
— Or-ly Barlev in English 🎗 (@OrlyBarlevEng) June 4, 2025
** A must listen audio piece **
A recording has surfaced of Prime Minister Netanyahu speaking to Jewish religious leaders, in English (with some Hebrew words mixed in), where he fully admits that he 'removed the obstacles'… https://t.co/EaThCeCX8Y
The ultra-Orthodox parties, UTJ and Shas, have issued an ultimatum: if a new law guaranteeing their exemption is not passed immediately, they will pull out of the coalition, triggering the collapse of Netanyahu’s government. Some Haredi senior rabbis have even instructed their lawmakers to push for the dissolution of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and call for early elections. This move escalates the crisis, further weakening Netanyahu’s ability to hold onto power.
This is not the first time ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to pull out of the coalition, but the current situation is more dire. The involvement of the Israeli Supreme Court has added legal and political weight to the crisis, and the military’s efforts to enforce the draft are intensifying. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have begun sending thousands of draft orders to Haredi men, but compliance has been low, with only a few hundred responding out of roughly 80,000 eligible individuals. The military’s manpower shortage is another key issue in the debate, as the IDF needs 12,000 new soldiers, including 7,000 combat troops.
Political Stakes and Potential Government Collapse
The political stakes are high. Netanyahu’s coalition currently holds a slim majority in the Knesset, but recent polls indicate it would lose power if elections were held now. Dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza conflict and the conscription issue has contributed to growing unrest among the public. As the ultra-Orthodox parties continue to demand a legal guarantee for their exemption, Netanyahu faces pressure not only from his coalition allies but also from secular right-wing parties that oppose blanket exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox.
Should the Haredi parties exit the coalition, Netanyahu would lose his majority, almost certainly leading to early elections. Such an outcome would mark a significant political shift, possibly ending Netanyahu’s tenure as Israel’s prime minister. Behind-the-scenes negotiations continue, but with the clock ticking, the window for finding a compromise between the government and the ultra-Orthodox factions is closing fast. As both the coalition and opposition prepare for a potential collapse, the future of Netanyahu’s government remains uncertain.
